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Russia Isn’t Going to Run Out of Missiles

Photo: CHRISTOF STACHE/AFP/Getty Images

Commentary by Ian Williams

Published June 28, 2023

Long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure have been a prominent and persistent aspect of the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. Earlier this year, the CSIS report Putin’s Missile War found that Russian missile attacks in 2022 had caused major damage to Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure but had failed to achieve the kind of decisive strategic effects that Moscow had likely sought. Into 2023, Russia has persisted in expending expensive, long-range missiles in regular attacks against a variety of civilian and military objects across Ukraine. The focus of these strikes regularly shifts and their intensity has ebbed and flowed, as has the quality of employed munitions.

However, Russia’s continued strike campaign in 2023 has made one thing quite clear: it is unrealistic to expect Russia to ever “run out” of missiles. Despite sanctions and export controls, it appears likely that Russia will be able to produce or otherwise acquire the long-range strike capacity necessary to inflict significant damage upon Ukraine’s people, economy, and military. Ukraine’s air defenses have performed remarkably well under challenging circumstances. Nevertheless, the Russian military has continued trying to identify gaps and seams to exploit to gain an advantage.

There is no one-off fix for this problem. Sanctions and export controls can, at most, limit the quantity and quality of strike assets Russia can acquire. The most reliable counter is sustained Western support for Ukrainian air defense forces for the duration of the conflict. The continued, steady provision of air defenses into the foreseeable future will save lives, reduce costs of future reconstruction, and help end the war more quickly by enabling Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the face of superior Russian airpower. Moreover, providing air defenses has also forced Western countries to scale up production of these systems, which could have long-term benefits for Western defense readiness.

Russia’s Latest Assault

In May, Russia renewed its long-range drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. This surge in activity came after a relative period of lull in March and April, following Moscow’s furious yet unsuccessful strike campaign aimed at collapsing Ukraine’s electric grid last winter. Unlike that singularly focused effort, Russia’s recent spate of missile and drone attacks since May has been aimed at a seemingly broader and less predictable target set.

For instance, Russia has used some of its most advanced and expensive missiles in a failed bid to destroy one of Ukraine’s U.S.-German-provided Patriot batteries protecting Kyiv. Moscow likely believed that the prompt destruction of a Patriot battery—one of the costliest weapon systems Ukraine has received—would discourage continued Western military aid. However, this line of attack backfired as the Patriot battery survived nearly unscathed. The Patriot battery reportedly shot down 100 percent of the 34 Iskander and Kinzhal quasi-ballistic missiles Russia has fired at Kyiv as of June 28, weapons that Moscow had once touted as impervious to air and missile defenses.

In other instances, assessing what Russia has been aiming at has been more challenging since most projectiles get shot down. Targets, though, seem to include a mix of critical infrastructure, command and control installations, and other military and civilian targets. Kyiv has borne the brunt of Russia’s latest assault. Still, Russia has, in more recent weeks, expanded its scope to other areas, possibly looking to exploit areas of Ukraine where air defense is thinner. On June 10, Russia struck a Ukrainian air base in Poltava with a complex barrage of eight ballistic and cruise missiles and as many as 35 Shahed-36 one-way attack munitions. Ukraine says it shot down only two cruise missiles, while 15 Shahed-136s made it through Ukrainian defenses. Russia has not carried out a major missile attack on a Ukrainian air base since the early months of the war, and likely that the area lacked the same level of air defense as Kyiv. Poltava probably lacks protection from Patriot, currently Ukraine’s only defense against ballistic missiles.

As with much of Russia’s air campaign against Ukraine, civilians have suffered the most. In many cases, damage to civilian areas has resulted from falling debris from intercepted missiles. Although much less destructive than allowing a missile to strike its target, debris from intercepts can still kill, maim, start fires, and otherwise damage property. In other instances, Russia appears to be attacking civilians directly. On June 13, Russia launched a cruise missile attack against Kryvyi Rih . At least one of the four missiles that got through Ukraine’s defenses struck an apartment building, killing 11.

Overall, the performance of Ukraine’s air defenses has steadily improved since the start of the war, particularly against Russian cruise missiles. Throughout much of Russia’s winter campaign against Ukraine’s electric grid, Ukraine’s Air Force reported intercepting around 70–80 percent of Russian cruise missiles. Since May, Ukraine has reported intercepting around 90 percent of Russian cruise missiles and drones (see below). Ukraine has reported downing nearly 80 percent of air and ground-launched ballistic missile attacks nationwide and 100 percent of ballistic missiles attacking areas where ballistic missile defenses (Patriot) are present. Ukraine only has two Patriot batteries. As such, most of Ukraine lacks any protection from ballistic missiles, as shown by the June 10 Iskander-M strike in Poltava and the June 22 Kh-47 strikes around Dnipro, which Ukraine could not stop.

While lacking the focus of prior phases of Russia’s long-range strike campaign, Russia’s current objectives seem primarily aimed at keeping Ukraine off balance during its counteroffensive operations in the South, to force Ukraine to divert air defense capacity to defend its cities. Given the limited supply of Ukrainian air defenses, a generalized and unpredictable strike campaign forces Ukraine to make difficult tradeoffs between defending its cities and critical infrastructure and providing thicker air defense for its troops on the front lines.

SHORAD Concerns

As Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive has gotten underway, observers are concerned that Ukraine is facing a gap in short-range air defenses (SHORAD) for its advancing troops. Russia’s use of attack helicopters like the Ka-52 armed with laser-guided 9K121 “Vikhr” missiles has been of particular concern to attack advancing Ukrainian armor. These missiles have a range of upwards of 12 kilometers, outside the range of many of Ukraine’s SHORAD systems like Strela, Stinger, StarStreak, and Igla variants. Ukraine’s medium-range air defenses, like IRIS-T, Buk, and NASAMs, are stretched between frontline duty and defending rear areas against long-range attacks. UK Defence Intelligence recently noted that Russia had deployed 20 additional attack helicopters to Berdyansk, and that “in the constant contest between aviation measures and countermeasures,” Russia had temporarily gained the upper hand.

Ukrainian Air Defense Performance by Threat Type, May 1–June 26, 2023

It is unclear how long Russia will be able to maintain this advantage, however. Ukraine already seems to be adapting, claiming to have shot down six Ka-52s and one Mi-24 attack helicopter since June 16. Moreover, Wagner forces shot down as many as seven additional Russian helicopters during its recent mutiny, including one Ka-52. To be sure, Russia’s attack helicopters are not a plentiful asset. Russia started the war with around 150 Ka-52s. It is doubtful that all of these were mission capable. In October 2022, UK Defence Intelligence estimated Russia to have had no more than 90 Ka-52s in service at the war’s commencement. Based on visual analysis by independent observers and reports from the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia has lost as many as 60 Ka-52s since the start of the war from enemy fire as well as accidents. The Ka-52 problem is not insurmountable, and Russia’s attack helicopter force cannot sustain the rate of losses they have sustained over the past week. However, ensuring that Ukraine has adequate medium- and short-range air defenses to support its counteroffensive over the coming months will be vital to its success. Moreover, additional long-range strike assets, such as Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles, would enable Ukraine to better target the bases Russia is using to house and maintain its attack helicopters, many of which are within the borders of Ukraine.

Russia’s Evolving Strike Complex

As early as March 2022, there was much conjecture that Russia’s supply of precision-guided missiles was dwindling . These reports may not have been entirely off the mark. Russia probably did quickly expend the portion of its long-range missile that it had initially allocated to its “special military operation.” Nevertheless, Russia maintained a steady drumbeat of missile strikes against Ukraine, likely by pulling munitions allocated to other theaters and drawing down its strategic reserves. Moreover, Russia has repurposed various surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles for land attack roles. Russia has also continued to manufacture missiles throughout the war, and evidence suggests that most (possibly all) Russian cruise missiles it has in its current inventory come from postwar production.

The exhaustion of prewar missile stockpiles has impacted the composition of current Russian strike salvos. Compared with previous phases of Russia’s air war, the composition of Russian missile attacks has trended away from high-end missile systems like cruise missiles toward cheaper, less capable “low-end” systems like Shahed-136 one-way attack munitions (see below). In the first three months of 2023, during the tail end of Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine’s electric grid, Shahed-136s accounted for around 40 percent of long-range projectiles fired at Ukraine. Since April, 61 percent of long-range munitions Russia has employed have been Shahed-136 one-way attack munitions. Compared to cruise and ballistic missiles, Shahed-136 are generally easier to shoot down and more vulnerable to cheaper defenses like the German-made Flakpanzer Gepard and other gun-based systems. The Shahed-136’s warhead weight is also only between that of a cruise missile like Kh-101, and therefore causes less damage when they do make it through defenses.

However, the decline in the quality of Russian long-range strike salvos is unlikely to continue. Rather, the overall composition of Russian strike packages will likely level off as Russian missile use becomes fully tethered to how many missiles it can produce. But it is improbable that Russian production of higher-end cruise and ballistic missiles will ever fall to zero. Despite Western sanctions and export controls of key microelectronic components, Russia has been able to find workarounds to continue producing missiles. In May, Ukrainian intelligence estimated that Russia currently manufactures around 60 cruise missiles, five Iskander ballistic missiles, and two Kinzhals monthly. In June, President Zelensky noted that Ukraine continues to find Western-made microelectronic components amongst the wrecks of Russian missiles. These components are likely finding their way into Russia via friendly third parties such as China.

The United States and Europe can and should seek ways to further restrict the flow of dual-use tech components to Russia. It is, however, unrealistic to expect they will be able to completely deprive Russia of the components it needs to manufacture missiles. Sanctions and export controls have never prevented proliferation by a determined state, let alone one with Russia’s size and economic reach. What they can do is make it harder and more expensive, which would limit the number of missiles it can produce. Regardless of how many missiles the Kremlin produces today, it wishes it could make more. Export controls can help limit that potential.

But the upshot is that Russia will continue having the capacity to build missiles and drones and will continue to fire them at Ukraine. This reality will not change until the war ends. Meanwhile, active air defense remains the most reliable counter to Russian missile attacks, requiring continued support and replenishment from Ukraine’s international partners.

Composition of Russian Missile Attacks on Ukraine, January 1–March 31, 2023

Composition of Russian Missile Attacks on Ukraine, April 1–June 22, 2023

Folks Are Getting It

The good news is that Ukraine’s partners seem to understand the air defense imperative and are responding. Ukraine’s most recent military aid packages have been heavy on air defenses.

Since May, the United States announced it would supply Ukraine’s Armed Forces with additional rounds for NASAMS and Patriot, Avenger air defense and Stinger missiles, and HAWK air defense systems. The United States is also supplying Ukraine with older AIM-7 Sparrow missiles, which have been made compatible with Ukraine’s Buk M2 systems, for which Ukraine has ample launchers though few remaining interceptor missiles.

On June 15, the United Kingdom announced a new multinational fund that would be used to procure “hundreds of short and medium range air defense systems” for Ukraine, noting these deliveries would consist “largely of Soviet-era missiles.” The United Kingdom had also announced in mid-May that it would provide additional air defenses to Ukraine, though it did not specify the type.

French president Macron also recently announced that a French/Italian-provided SAMP/T system is now active in Ukraine, protecting “key installations and lives.” Germany delivered the second of four promised IRIS-T SLM air defense systems in April, along with an additional TRML 4D radar. Berlin also announced on June 24 that it plans to provide Ukraine with 45 more Gepard Flakpanzer systems, more than doubling the number Ukraine currently operates.

These contributions to Ukraine, while reducing national stockpiles of munitions in the short term, have the added benefit of bolstering the production lines of several key air defense systems. Having warm production lines for these complex systems could boost U.S. and allied defense readiness in the long term over and above the risks of near-term drawdowns.

For instance, the U.S. Army expects Stinger production to rise by 50 percent by 2025. As part of that ramp-up, at least one critical component of the Stinger has been redesigned in such a way as to overcome current supply chain issues. The United States is also increasing the production of Patriot systems. There are also significant increases in NASAMS production, and the United Kingdom recently announced it was restarting production of its Starstreak air defense system.

No Permanent Fix

Looking ahead, there is no simple solution to the Russian missile problem. Russia will continue to produce and acquire missiles and one-way attack munitions and use them to target Ukraine. Sanctions and export control can make this harder and costlier for the Russians, but they will not stop them. As long as the war continues, Ukraine must maintain a robust air and missile defense, which will require steady support from the United States and its many other international partners.

To this end, Western defense industrial capacity for everything from air defense interceptors to precision-guided munitions needs to be scaled up and new supply chains built. This process will not only help the United States maintain the steady support that Ukraine needs to win the war as quickly as possible, but it will also leave the United States and its allies in a stronger position to deter and defeat future threats.

Ian Williams is a fellow in the International Security Program and deputy director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2024 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Ian Williams

Programs & projects.

How many missiles are left in Russia's arsenal?

Topic: Unrest, Conflict and War

A ground-based intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Plesetsk facility in north-western Russia in December 2020. ( AP: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service/File )

As Russia bombarded Ukraine this week, military observers were left wondering about how many and what types of rockets and missiles Russia still has in its arsenal.

In other words, how long can the Kremlin keep up the barrage?

Some analysts say Russia could be running down its stockpiles of long-range precision weapons as the nearly eight-month-old war drags on and sanctions hit its economy, forcing it to resort to less-accurate ones.

It remains unclear if Russia has enough weapons to continue the strikes against Ukraine with the same intensity that began following the October 8 explosion on the Kerch Bridge to the Moscow-annexed Crimean Peninsula.

Here's a look at what is known — and what's not — about Russia's arsenal.

What does Russia claim to have left?

Russian officials have said the military has sufficient stockpiles of long-range missiles and that factories are churning out more, rejecting the West's claims its supplies are shrinking.

The Russian military hasn't said how many rockets and missiles it has fired, nor how many are left, and there is no data to independently assess the state of their arsenal.

President Vladimir Putin recently chaired a meeting to discuss plans for boosting weapons production, but he steered clear of specifics in the introductory remarks that were televised.

Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting via videoconference from St Petersburg, Russia. ( AP: Gavriil Grigorov )

What has Russia relied on recently?

When the Russian military unleashed its missile attacks across Ukraine starting on Monday, it drew on the entire scope of its long-range precision weapons: the Kh-55 and Kh-101 cruise missiles fired by strategic bombers, the sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles and the ground-launched Iskander missiles.

Russian forces have also repeatedly used the S-300 surface-to-air defence missile systems for striking ground targets, which was seen by some observers as a sign of a Russian weapons shortages.

Its repurposing of air defence systems and anti-ship missiles suggests it is running low on more-advanced missiles that are intended to hit ground targets, said a fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ian Williams.

Mr Williams said strikes from a Russian S-300 air defence system didn't have the "oomph to really hit hardened military targets" nor the "accuracy in a land attack role to even strike the building you want to hit".

"This really is just firing them into the ether and seeing where they land," he said. 

Their use, however, could be explained by an abundant stock of older, subtypes of such missiles, which were superseded by more-advanced air defence weapons, as well as the military's desire to keep more expensive, advanced long-range missiles for priority targets.

While numbers are hard to obtain, how Russia is using its weapons is telling.

In a recent strike in Mykolaiv, a surface-to-air missile was used to hit a target on the ground.

London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies' senior fellow for military aerospace, Douglas Barrie, called that "a sure sign that missile stocks are running low".

What is Washington saying? 

While the Biden administration says there is evidence that Russia has depleted stocks of its most-efficient weapons, US officials have said there is no sign Moscow is ready or willing to relent in its recent barrages against civilian areas in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

It was not immediately clear what the US thinks Russia might have left in its arsenal.

However, two officials said US government analysts had noted with interest that Russia had used cruise missiles, and not the less-expensive, shorter-range artillery or rockets, in the aftermath of the Kerch Bridge blast.

That choice, the officials said, could indicate that Russia is running low on cheaper, reliable, mid-range weapons and is having trouble replenishing its stockpiles due to sanctions and supply chain disruptions.

A Russian military officer walks past the 9M729 land-based cruise missile on display in Kubinka outside Moscow in 2019. ( AP: File )

The relative calm that Kyiv enjoyed prior to the Kerch Bridge incident may have been a sign that Russia was trying to conserve its limited resources, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal assessments of Russia's military strength.

What's behind the choice of targets? 

Firing large numbers of inaccurate missiles could be intended to clutter air defences while Russia uses its best missiles for high-value targets and key infrastructure.

However, Mr Williams suggested that Moscow could also be acting strategically, knowing its barrage will hit civilian targets in the hopes of driving up panic in Ukraine and pushing Kyiv to accept a ceasefire favourable to Russia.

"It's becoming more and more clear that, as they say, the cruelty is the point," he said.

Russia's weapons production has actually increased dramatically despite Western sanctions, report says

Western sanctions have failed to undermine Russia’s weapons production and Moscow has even managed to ramp up the manufacturing of key weapons to fuel its war against Ukraine , according to a new report by a London-based think tank.

The sanctions effort has been hampered by overly cautious decision-making by Western governments and delays in sharing intelligence among Western allies, said the report by the Royal United Services Institute. 

Although the U.S. and its partners have touted an array of sanctions over the past two years to choke off Moscow’s access to key parts needed to build weapons, Russia has dramatically increased the production of artillery rounds, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the report.

In 2021, before Russian forces invaded, Moscow produced 56 Kh-101 cruise missiles a year. By last year, it had manufactured 460 cruise missiles, according to the report. Russia’s stock of Iskander ballistic missiles also has increased dramatically, from about 50 before the invasion to 180, even though Russia has launched large numbers of the missiles on the battlefield, it said.

To make munitions for missiles and drones, Russia depends on micro-electronics imported from abroad, but U.S. and European measures have failed to block Moscow’s access to those electronic components. Russia has maintained an ample supply of antennas manufactured by an Irish company that are used in glide kits for bombs, according to the report. 

The expansion of Russia’s weapons production offers clear evidence that thousands of Western sanctions have proved ineffective, the report said. “In summary, despite the diligent efforts of many civil servants, backed by the political will to disrupt Russia’s military–industrial output, there is little to show for it,” it said.

The U.S. Treasury Department this month announced a new set of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including penalties for foreign banks that deal with Russia’s economy and restrictions to block the export of certain U.S.-made software and IT services to Russia.

The authors of the report argue that it is still possible for the U.S. and its allies to choke off the supply or prohibitively raise the cost of electronic components, machine tooling and raw materials needed for Russia’s weapons production. 

To make sanctions stick, governments need to share relevant intelligence — including classified information — rapidly to allow for timely enforcement of export controls or action. Western governments should form an “intelligence fusion center” that could build “a common recognized target picture of the Russian defense industry,” it said.

Better intelligence sharing would also allow allies to undertake coordinated action — including clandestine measures — to undercut Russia’s weapons production, the report said.

There are “multiple stages throughout the production process where intervention, both overt and covert, can cause delay, the degradation in quality, or a serious increase in cost to Russia’s arms production,” the report said.

Dan De Luce is a reporter for the NBC News Investigative Unit. 

Thu 29 Aug 2024

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How many cruise missiles does Russia have? Putin’s military power explained and weapons he’s used in Ukraine

Cruise missiles struck lviv on friday morning, destroying a factory and damaging a bus garage as the ukraine war continues.

Russia has started using cruise missiles more widely in Ukraine, as the invasion enters its third week .

Missiles struck Lviv on Friday morning , destroying a factory and damaging a bus garage.

The city’s mayor, Andriy Sadovyi, said an aircraft repair building was destroyed, but there were no casualties.

What exactly are cruise missiles and how many does Russia have ? Here is what you need to know.

What are cruise missiles?

A cruise missile is a guided missile, making them highly precise at striking targets hundreds or even thousands of miles away.

Modern cruise missiles are self-navigating and capable of travelling at high subsonic, supersonic, or hypersonic speeds.

However, most travel below the speed of sound at 450-650mph, and they also fly at low altitudes. This means they are slower than ballistic missiles, but because they are smaller and fly closer to Earth’s surface they are also harder to intercept and easier to navigate.

How many cruise missiles does Russia have?

Russia started developing land-attack cruise missiles in the 1950s, but only started using them in earnest during the Syrian Civil War, which started in 2011.

Dr Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow for sea power and missile defence at the Royal United Services Institute, said it is unclear how many cruise missiles Russia currently has . One report has suggested about 120 were produced in 2018.

#war The moment when the SS-N-30 cruise missile hit one of the military warehouse near Odessa, 🇺🇦 #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/tVWLLkx9Pc — Capt(N) (@Capt_Navy) February 24, 2022

“I’d expect the cruise missile arsenal to be large but not limitless,” he said. “They would have to be careful about what they hit.”

Russia is known to have Kh-55SM cruise missiles, which can travel 3,000km at subsonic speeds and hit a target with an accuracy of 15 metres using an inertial navigation system.

The Russian Navy are is subsonic 3M14 Kalibur land attack cruise missiles from ships and submarines.

Warplanes are firing Tu-95s, Tu-22Ms, and Tu-160s, as well as Su-34s and Su-24Ms, which are smaller.

Russia has used cruise missiles to strike both government and civilian targets in Ukraine, including the government building and a school that were destroyed in Kharkiv.

How big is Russia’s military?

Russia has around 900,000 active military personnel , roughly 200,000 of which were stationed at the Ukrainian border ahead of the invasion.

The Russian navy operates 74 warships and 51 submarines, while the army has more than 13,300 tanks, almost 20,000 armoured fighting vehicles, and nearly 6,000 pieces of artillery.

Its air force boasts around 1,300 aircraft and 500 helicopters.

Russia also possesses plenty of long-range weaponry, including more than 500 land-based ballistic missile launchers.

President Putin has boasted about Russia’s hypersonic missiles , which are missiles that travel faster than Mach 5, or 3,836mph.

This means they move at about one mile per second, or five times faster than the speed of sound. There is currently no way to stop or intercept them.

Some can travel even faster. Russia’s Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile, for example, can allegedly reach Mach 10, equivalent to more than 7,600mph.

How big is Ukraine’s army?

Russia’s forces are significantly larger than Ukraine’s. Ukraine has just shy of 200,000 military personnel – a fifth of Russia’s number.

Ukraine does not have any submarines and owns just two warships, meaning Russia far exceeds its forces at sea.

On land the Ukrainian army has just over 2,100 tanks, 2,870 armoured fighting vehicles and 2,000 pieces of artillery.

And its air force possesses around 150 aircraft and 40 helicopters – roughly a tenth of Russia’s supply.

Ukraine’s defence budget stands at around $11.8bn, compared with Russia’s $154bn, showing the gulf in the two countries’ military capabilities.

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Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions

Weapons investigators in Kyiv found that at least one Russian Kh-101 cruise missile used in widespread attacks there on Nov. 23 had been made no earlier than October.

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By John Ismay

Some of the cruise missiles that Russia launched at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure in late November were manufactured months after the West imposed sanctions intended to deprive Moscow of the components needed to make those munitions, according to a weapons research group.

Experts examined remnants of Kh-101 cruise missiles found in Kyiv, the capital, after an attack on Nov. 23 that knocked out electricity and shut down water systems in large areas of the country. One of the missiles was made this summer, and another was completed after September, markings on the weapons show, according to a report released by the investigators on Monday .

That Russia has continued to make advanced guided missiles like the Kh-101 suggests that it has found ways to acquire semiconductors and other matériel despite the sanctions or that it had significant stockpiles of the components before the war began, one of the researchers said.

The findings are among the most recent by Conflict Armament Research , an independent group based in Britain that identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition used in wars. A small team of its researchers arrived in Kyiv just before the attack at the invitation of the Ukrainian security service.

In four previous research trips to Kyiv since the invasion, the investigators found that almost all of the advanced Russian military gear they examined — like encrypted radios and laser range finders — was built with Western semiconductors.

The investigators were unable to determine whether the Kh-101 remnants they studied were from missiles that reached their targets and exploded or were intercepted in flight and shot down.

The Kh-101 missiles were marked with a 13-digit numerical sequence. The investigators said they believe that the first three digits represent the factory where the missile was made, followed by another three-digit code indicating which of two known versions of the Kh-101 it is and two digits indicating when it was manufactured. A final string of five numbers is believed to denote the missile’s production batch and serial number.

Piotr Butowski, a Polish journalist who has written extensively about Russia’s warplanes and military munitions, said the group’s numerical analysis matched up with his research.

“The first three digits are always ‘315’ — this is the production facility code,” Mr. Butowski said in an email. “Kh-101 missiles are developed and manufactured by the Raduga company in Dubna near Moscow.”

In an interview before the report was released, a U.S. defense intelligence analyst said that Mr. Butowski’s analysis was consistent with the government’s understanding of how Russian missile producers — including those that make the Kh-101 — mark their weapons. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said Russia was generally believed to be experiencing ammunition stockpile problems and may be using newer munitions alongside those that are much older.

The analyst said that reports from Russia indicate that the government has ordered employees at munition plants to work additional hours in an effort to produce more ordnance, and that it is clear that Russia is now firing fewer long-range weapons like cruise missiles at a smaller number of targets in Ukraine.

Pentagon officials say Russia has fired thousands of long-range weapons like cruise missiles as well as short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at targets in Ukraine since the war began.

Whether Russia has depleted its inventory of older cruise missiles is unclear. But militaries often use older munitions first in combat because they typically make up a majority of a nation’s stockpile.

On Nov. 23, the same day as the cruise missile attack on Kyiv, Lloyd J. Austin III, the secretary of defense, told reporters that Russia’s supply of precision-guided weapons had been “significantly reduced” and that it would be more difficult for Russia to rapidly produce them “because of the trade restrictions they have on microchips and other types of things.”

But Damien Spleeters, who led Conflict Armament Research’s investigation, said it would be difficult to say that the Russians are running short on weapons.

“Those claims have been made since April,” he said, “so we’re just pointing to the fact that these cruise missiles being made so recently may be a symptom of that, but it’s not a certainty.”

John Ismay is a Pentagon correspondent in the Washington bureau and a former Navy explosive ordnance disposal officer. More about John Ismay

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

Russia’s Bombing Campaign:  Moscow’s far-reaching bombardment of Ukraine , which President Volodymyr Zelensky has called one of the largest since the war began, eased after two nights of deadly barrages .

Mine-Detecting Drones:  Ukraine has become a beta test for embedding A.I. and other new technologies in drones and robots  to find deadly land mines.

Ukraine’s Poetry Boom:  With verses that capture the raw emotions of the war and resonate deeply with the population, Ukrainian poets have emerged as some of the country’s most influential voices .

Modi’s Kyiv Visit:  Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India visited Kyiv, furthering a diplomatic effort by Ukraine to engage non-Western nations  in potential settlement talks with Russia.

How We Verify Our Reporting

Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs , videos and radio transmissions  to independently confirm troop movements and other details.

We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts .

Country: Russia

25 items, page 1 of 0, kh-55 (as-15).

The Kh-55 (NATO: AS-15 “Kent) is an air-launched cruise missile developed by the Soviet Union starting in 1971. Originally designed as a strategic system capable of delivering a nuclear warhead 2,500 km, the missile has given rise to several variants. These include the Kh-55SM, an extended range version; the Kh-555, a conventional version; and the...

3M-14 Kalibr (SS-N-30A)

The 3M14 Kalibr (NATO: SS-N-30A) is a Russian land attack cruise missile (LACM) and improved version of the 3M-14E “Club” LACM. The SS-N-30A has an estimated range of around 1,500 to 2,500 km and has become a mainstay in the Russian Navy’s ground-strike capabilities. Kalibr Development Although commonly referred to as the Kalibr cruise missile...

R-27 Zyb (SS-N-6)

The R-27 Zyb (NATO designation: SS-N-6 “Serb”), was a submarine-launched, liquid-fueled ballistic missile developed and deployed by the Soviet Union. Elements of the R-27 are believed to be the basis for some of North Korea’s ballistic missile programs. R-27 Development Development of the R-27 began in 1962 and flight tests began in mid-1965. The missile was first...

RK-55 Granat (SS-N-21)

The RK-55 Granat (NATO: SS-N-21 “Sampson”) is a submarine and ground-launched intermediate range cruise missile produced by the Soviet Union since 1976. RK-55 Development The RK-55 is the submarine/ground-launched component of the “55” series of cruise missiles which also included the Kh-55 air-launched missile. This family of cruise missiles was the Soviet Union’s response to the...

RSM-56 Bulava (SS-N-32)

The RSM-56 Bulava (NATO: SS-N-32) is an intercontinental-range, submarine-launched, solid propellant ballistic missile. Alongside the SS-25 and the SS-27, both land-based ICBMs, the Bulava represents a core component of Russia’s future strategic nuclear force. Development of the program began in the 1990’s with official production contacts going into effect in the 2007-2008 timeframe. The Bulava...

R-29RM Shtil (SS-N-23)

The R-29RM Shtil (NATO: SS-N-23 “Skiff”) is an intercontinental-range, submarine-based, liquid propellant ballistic missile. The Skiff was developed for the Delta IV ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), each of which is capable of carrying 16 missiles. SS-N-23 Development The SS-N-23 is capable of launching its 2,800 kg payload up to a range of 8,300 km. This payload is...

P-800 Oniks/Yakhont/Bastion (SS-N-26 Strobile)

The SS-N-26 “Strobile” (P-800 Oniks)/Yakhont/Yakhont-M are Russian anti-ship cruise missiles developed by NPO Mashinostroyenia. There are three known variants of the missile. The ship-launched variant is known as the P-800 Oniks and has been designated the SS-N-26 “Strobile” by NATO. The export variant of the ground-launched version is known as the Yakhont. An air-launched variant...

R-29 Vysota (SS-N-18)

The R-29 Vysota (NATO: SS-N-18 “Stingray”) is an intercontinental-range, submarine-launched, liquid-propellant ballistic missile. It likely derives from the SS-N-8 (R-29) missile. The SS-N-18 was designed for the Delta III ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), or Kalmar class. Each Kalmar carries sixteen SS-N-18 missiles. SS-N-18 Development There have been three SS-N-18 variants. Mod 1 has a range...

OTR-21 Tochka (SS-21)

The OTR-21 Tochka (NATO: SS-21 “Scarab”) is a short-range, road-mobile, solid propellant, single warhead ballistic missile designed for battlefield deployment. It was designed as a replacement for the Free Rocket Over Ground (FROG) missile series. Reports suggest that it can be launched in either a ballistic or cruise missile mode. The ballistic mode provides an...

SS-1 “Scud”

The SS-1 “Scud A” was designed a short time after the end of World War II by captured German scientists and is based upon the Nazi V-2 rocket which was used to attack London during the Second World War. The Scud family of short-range, liquid-fueled missiles has now proliferated around the world and serves as...

3M-54 Kalibr/Club (SS-N-27)

The 3M-54 Kalibr/Klub (SS-N-27 “Sizzler”) is a Russian short-range ship-, and submarine-launched anti-ship missile. The Sizzler is part of the Kalibr family of missiles and has several export versions known as the ‘Klub’ missile series. SS-N-27 Development Along with the rest of the Klub and Kalibr family of missiles, this anti-ship cruise missile began development...

RSD-10 Pioneer (SS-20)

The RSD-10 Pioneer (NATO: SS-20 “Saber”) was a Soviet intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that entered service in 1976. Its wide-scale deployment was a key driver behind NATO’s 1979 decision to station U.S. Pershing II IRBMs in Europe. The Soviet Union retired the SS-20 from service following the ratification of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty...

9K720 Iskander (SS-26)

The 9K720 Iskander (NATO: SS-26 “Stone”) is a road-mobile short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) with a range of up to 500 km. Using a common transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) and support vehicles, the system can also fire the 9M728 (R-500, SSC-7) and 9M729 (SSC-8) cruise missiles. Iskander Development Russia began development of the SS-26 in the late 1980s...

RS-26 Rubezh

The RS-26 Rubezh is a Russian solid-fueled, road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) currently in development. Although classified as an ICBM under the New START Treaty, the RS-26 has been tested with heavier payloads at ranges below 5,500 km, potentially putting Russia in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. RS-26 Development Development of the...

RS-28 Sarmat

The RS-28 Sarmat is a liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile currently under development by Russia. Sarmat Development Designed to replace Russia’s aging SS-18 Satan ICBM, the RS-28 Sarmat began development some time in the 2000s. After awarding production contracts to Makeyev Design Bureau and NPOMash in early 2011, Russia concluded research and development of the Sarmat...

RS-24 Yars (SS-27 Mod 2)

The RS-24 Yars (NATO: SS-27 Mod 2) is a three-stage solid fuel missile that reportedly carries a payload of three reentry vehicles (RV) and penetration aids. RS-24 Yars Development The RS-24 Yars is believed to have entered into service in February 2010. While details about the missiles specifications and capabilities are limited, it is reported to...

RT-2PM2 Topol-M (SS-27 Mod 1 “Sickle B”)

The RT-2PM2 “Topol-M” (NATO designation: SS-27 “Sickle B”), is a Russian solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 11,000 km. Topol-M Development The development of the Topol-M, began in the late 1980s as an upgraded version of the SS-25, though it was redesigned in 1992 as the first missile designed and built by the...

RT-2PM Topol (SS-25)

The RT-2PM Topol (SS-25 “Sickle”) is an intercontinental-range, road-mobile, solid propellant ballistic missile system. It has a range of over 11,000 km and was based on the preceding Temp-2S and Pioneer road-mobile missiles. SS-25 Development The SS-25 entered development in 1977, with flight tests occurring in between 1983-87. The missile was officially commissioned into service...

UR-100 (SS-19)

The UR-100 (NATO: SS-19 “Stiletto”) s an intercontinental-range, silo-based, liquid propellant ballistic missile system deployed by the Soviet Union and now the Russian Federation. Designed concurrently with the SS-17, with which it shares many features. SS-17, SS-18, and SS-19 were the first Soviet missiles to be equipped with Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) warheads with...

R-36 (SS-18 “Satan”)

The The R-36 (NATO: SS-18 “Satan”) is an intercontinental-range, silo-based, liquid propellant ballistic missile initially developed by the Soviet Union and now the Russian Federation. It is believed that a total of six versions have existed since the program’s inception, with only the Mod 6’s still operationally deployed. SS-18 Development The SS-18 (original Mods 1/2/3)...

Kh-101 / Kh-102

The Kh-101 / Kh-102 is a line of conventional and nuclear capable air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) developed and deployed by Russia. A stealthy missile, the Kh-101/-102 is designed to defeat air defense systems by flying at low, terrain-hugging altitudes to avoid radar systems. The Kh-101 carries a conventional warhead, while the Kh-102 is believed to...

Kh-47M2 Kinzhal

The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is a nuclear-capable, Russian air-launched ballistic missile, likely derived from Russia’s ground-launched 9K720 Iskander-M. It was one of six “next generation” weapons unveiled by President Putin during a speech in March 2018. Kinzhal Development Although it is unclear when Kinzhal’s development began, concept schemes of Russian Iskander missiles installed on the MiG-31...

Missiles of Russia

As the heir to the substantial Soviet missile arsenal, Russia boasts the widest inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles in the world. Russia remains a major power in the development of missiles of all kinds, and Russian strategic rocket forces constitute a significant element of Moscow’s military strategy. Russian missiles perform a wide variety of...

9M729 (SSC-8)

The SSC-8 is a Russian ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) with a range of 2,500 km. Its development prompted the 2019 U.S. withdrawal from the 1987 INF Treaty. SSC-8 Development Russia reportedly began covert development of the SSC-8 in the mid-2000s, and started flight testing in 2008. It was first test fired in July 2014. It...

The Avangard is a nuclear-capable, hypersonic boost-glide vehicle developed by the Russian Federation. It was one of six “next generation” weapons described by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a speech in March 2018. Avangard Development The origins of the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) reach back to the mid-1980s, at which time the USSR first started...

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Weapons tracing shows Russia firing new cruise missiles at Ukraine just weeks after production

In one case where two kh-101 missiles were recovered and examined after striking kyiv in november 2022, car researchers were able to determine that one of the munitions was produced in the last quarter of 2022, most likely october. .

A Russian Kh-101 air launched cruise missile reportedly shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. (Ukrainian Air Force on Twitter)

BELFAST — Weapons researchers have gathered examples of newly-produced Russian cruise missiles that have been used against Ukraine , in what they say is a sign that Russia’s stockpile of munitions has become so thin weapons are being used in the war just a few months after assembly.

The discovery implies that Moscow is facing serious stockpile issues and increased production pressure that “might not be indefinitely sustainable,” according to Damien Spleeters, deputy director of operations at the Conflict Armament Research (CAR) group, a UK based weapons tracking organization. The news comes as Britain warns Russia is trying to rebuild its cruise missile stockpile.

Spleeters revealed to Breaking Defense that during a recent trip to Ukraine, his team recovered parts from a Kh-59MK2 air-to-surface missile that struck Ukrainian territory in March 2023, with CAR tracing production of the weapon to Q4 2022.

That’s a strikingly quick turnaround from production to use, but it isn’t even the fastest rate of use CAR has found. In another case, two Kh-101 missiles were recovered and examined after striking Kyiv in November 2022, with CAR researchers able to determine that one of the munitions was produced in the last quarter of 2022, most likely October.

CAR can be so precise about the provenance of the missiles because the first three serial number digits from both the Kh-101 and Kh-59 are linked to the factory of manufacture, with the next three digits linked to a “certain model,” said Spleeters. “That’s followed by one digit for the quarter of the year and one digit for the year of production.”

Besides Kh-101 and Kh-59 weapons, a wide variety of other Russian air launched cruise missiles have been found in Ukraine including Kh-22, Kh-29, Kh-31, Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and Kh-555 types, according to CSIS.

CAR’s findings line up with broader evidence that Russia’s stockpiles of cruise missiles are thinned out after 15 months of war.

In a May 3 UK intelligence update , the British military said that two air-launched cruise missile strikes against Ukraine, performed April 28 and May 1, were the first time in 50 days that ALCMs were used by Russian forces. According to the report, “both strikes used smaller numbers of missiles than seen in previous attacks, which is likely due to Russian attempts to rebuild its ALCM stockpiles.”

Another piece of evidence that Russia’s stockpiles are thin comes from reports that Russia’s fleet of Su-34s, normally used to launch ALCMs, have instead been operating with “dumb” bombs.

RELATED: A Russian Su-34 accidentally bombed a Russian city. Here’s what it tells us about Putin’s forces.

“I think we have reached a turning point where certain Russian stocks and components are getting low and have to be replenished,” said Spleeters. “From what I have seen of post invasion Kh-59 produced missiles, they are based on a mix of Russian and Western components made before the war, so Russia still appears to be relying on older stockpiles.”

At a wider level, CAR has assessed thousands of Russian weapon components and communication devices recovered in Ukraine, largely it says, manufactured between 2014 and 2021.

“This really indicates that Russia had a very consistent stockpile effort before the invasion, knowing that new export control measures and sanctions would be imposed and trying to be as resilient as they could before starting the invasion,” added Spleeters. “That’s why it will take time to see the effect of sanctions, but they will certainly have an effect for sure.”

US officials, including undersecretary of defense for policy Colin Kahl, have previously predicted that international export controls will make Russian stockpile rebuilding “a lot harder” especially in regard to accessing microchips to recapitalize precision guided missiles and standoff munitions.

Russia has used more than 5,000 missiles and “one way attack drones” since the war started in February 2022 and expended “much of its pre-war stockpile of precision-guided missiles” according to a May 2023 report from CSIS.

The same report, which describes Russia’s missile strike campaign as “strategically ineffective,” identifies potential capability flaws of Russian missiles, including Ukrainian authorities reporting Kh-101 shoot down incidents that call into question the purported stealth characteristics of the weapon.

The Ukrainian Air Force also said in a social media post Saturday that it had successfully downed a Kinzhal hypersonic missile over Kyiv with a Patriot air defense system. Russia has consistently championed the modern munition as one especially difficult to intercept based on a claim it can fly at 10 times the speed of sound.

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed on Tuesday that a Patriot system shot down a Russian missile over Ukraine, but would not confirm if it was a Kinzhal or not.

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Russia's largest attack on Ukraine just showed that its Black Sea Fleet is still dangerous despite its heavy losses

• Russia carried out its largest air attack against Ukraine so far on Monday.
• The attack included 28 Kalibr missiles fired from Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea.
• Russia's Black Sea Fleet has taken heavy losses, but the attack shows it's still a threat.

Russia fired hundreds of missiles and attack drones into Ukraine on Monday, targeting critical infrastructure and other sites across the country in what Ukraine said was the largest aerial bombardment of the war.

Ukraine's air force said it detected 127 missiles launched by Russian aircraft, ground forces, and warships, as well as an additional 109 drones. Kyiv said it destroyed 102 missiles and 99 drones during the massive barrage.

At least seven people were killed in the attack, and dozens more were injured, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine said Monday evening local time.

The Russian attack involved several different types of weapons, including 28 Kalibr cruise missiles that were fired from "surface" and "underwater carriers in the eastern part of the Black Sea," Ukraine's air force said , indicating launches from surface warships and submarines.

The involvement of Russia's Black Sea Fleet shows it's still capable of carrying out large-scale attacks on Ukraine despite taking heavy losses.

Ukraine says it has sunk, damaged, or destroyed at least a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet since the start of the war — a notable success given that Kyiv doesn't have a proper navy of its own.

Ukrainian military and security forces have relied heavily on domestically produced naval drones and anti-ship missiles to engage in asymmetrical warfare and curb the Russian naval threat.

The Ukrainian campaign has ultimately forced the Black Sea Fleet to disperse from its headquarters in the southwestern corner of the occupied Crimean peninsula and relocate to the eastern part of the region, closer to Russia, where the Kalibr missiles were fired from on Monday.

Despite these substantial setbacks to the fleet, a spokesperson for Ukraine's navy said earlier this year that Russia maintained a serious presence in the Black Sea , including a combination of missile carriers, submarines, and patrol ships.

Related stories

Three Russian cruise-missile submarines were spotted in the broad Black Sea area just a few weeks ago.

On Monday, Russia also launched ballistic missiles and cruise missiles from other platforms during its huge bombardment, including Tu-95 strategic bombers, Su-34 fighter-bombers, and Su-57 fifth-generation aircraft, Ukraine said, adding that its forces shot down 201 of the 236 aerial threats.

Business Insider was unable to verify the Ukrainian claims.

Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk, the commander of Ukraine's air force, said in a statement , "All available weapons and equipment were used to repel the air attack: aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces of the Air Force, mobile fire groups of the Ukrainian Defence Forces and electronic warfare units."

John Kirby, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, said the US was focused on providing Ukraine with critical air-defense systems and interceptor missiles to defend itself against such attacks in the future.

"Their air defense performed really well during these attacks," he told reporters on Monday. "Clearly, some things got through. But they knocked the majority out of the sky, and we have to make sure they can continue to do that."

Watch: Ukraine's sea drones vs. Russia's Black Sea Fleet

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Russia loses another 1,280 soldiers and 12 tanks in one day

Russia has lost 1,280 soldiers killed and wounded, 52 artillery systems, 19 armoured combat vehicles and 12 tanks over the past day alone.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook

Details : The total combat losses of the Russian forces between 24 February 2022 and 27 August 2024 are estimated to be as follows [figures in parentheses represent the latest losses – ed.]:

approximately 610,100 (+1,280) military personnel;

8,563 (+12) tanks;

16,667 (+19) armoured combat vehicles;

17,495 (+52) artillery systems;

1,173 (+1) multiple-launch rocket systems;

937 (+0) air defence systems;

367 (+0) fixed-wing aircraft;

328 (+0) helicopters;

14,254 (+120) strategic and tactical UAVs;

2,547 (+103) cruise missiles;

28 (+0) ships and boats;

1 (+0) submarines;

23,613 (+58) vehicles and tankers;

2,944 (+3) special vehicles and other equipment.

The information is being confirmed.

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Ukrainian F-16s Shot Down Russian Cruise Missiles, Says Zelensky

The Ukrainian F-16s were among the assets that countered the Russian cruise missiles and one-way attack drones during the latest major attack.

The Ukrainian F-16s may have seen their first combat actions yesterday, during what has been defined as the largest Russian air raid against Ukraine to date, with a reported total of 127 missiles and 109 one-way attack drones. During a live-streamed event with the press, Ukrainian president Zelensky claimed that F-16s were involved in the defense and shot down an unspecified number of cruise missiles.

On Aug. 26, 2024, Russia launched a massive wave on attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with explosions reported also in Kyiv. Among the weapons employed were reported the Iskander-M/KN-23 GLBM (Ground Launched Ballistic Missile), Kinzhal ALBM (Air Launched Ballistic Missile), Kh-22/32 ALCM (Air Launched Cruise Missile), Kh-101 ALCM, 3M-14 Kalibr SLCM (Sea Launched Cruise Missile), Kh-59/69 ALCM and the Shahed-136 OWA-UAS (One-Way Attack UAS).

‼️🇺🇦🇷🇺 This is the largest Russian air raid against Ukraine to date, with 236 missiles and UAS. 1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 GLBMs 1/3 Kinzhal ALBMs 1/3 Kh-22/32 ALCMs 77 Kh-101 ALCMs 28 3M-14 Kalibr SLCMs 10 Kh-59/69 ALCMs (99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69) 99/109 Shahed-131/136 OWA-UAS pic.twitter.com/bsKpkrAM5z — John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 (@John_A_Ridge) August 26, 2024

Details about the F-16 participation to the defensive effort were not disclosed, other that the US-made fighter was able to shoot down a number of missiles. The aircraft delivered to Ukraine are currently equipped with the AIM-120B AMRAAM, AIM-9L/M Sidewinder and the internal M61 Vulcan 20 mm cannon, which are all weapons already used against similar targets in other occasions, such as the defense of Israel .

Stream link: https://t.co/79QJKPyeYt https://t.co/9jimbWf6H2 — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 27, 2024

Ukrainian F-16’s upgraded EW systems

On the same day of the attack, the U.S. Air Force disclosed its involvement in the upgrade of the electronic warfare (EW) suites of the F-16s delivered to Ukraine. The 68th Electronic Warfare Squadron recently collaborated with their Danish and Norwegian counterparts in support of the delivery of F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands to Ukraine, said the service in a press release.

“The 68th EWS is an Air Force center of Electronic Warfare excellence, focused on increasing the lethality and survivability of the U.S. and its strategic partners by developing, testing and delivering full-spectrum Electromagnetic Warfare support,” says the Air Force. The unit is based at Eglin Air Force Base and part of the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing.

Both Ukraine and Russia’s militaries heavily rely on the electromagnetic spectrum, employing jamming and spoofing throughout the war to achieve spectrum superiority. To effectively integrate the F-16 into the Ukrainian Air Force , its EW subsystems required reprogramming to be effective against evolving Russian threats in the spectrum, said the press release.

The unit faced two problems, as the U.S. Air Force did not have access to the systems installed on the soon-to-be delivered F-16s, as it is not part of the US inventory, and the timeline was strict. The 68th EWS assembled a dedicated team which started working on data provided by Denmark and Norway. The team then went overseas to an unspecified partner-nation lab to collaboratively develop and test the system alongside coalition teammates.

“This is not our standard operating procedure,” said the 68th EWS director. “The fact that the team was able to figure out the system in two weeks, go in country with a partner to develop a best-ever mission data file is unheard of and is thanks to the talent here in the squadron and the wing.”

The press release then added that Ukraine is now being onboarded as an official foreign military sales case for the 68th EWS. This way the unit will provide reprogramming capabilities based on feedback from the Ukrainians, which will provide combat-tested data to improve capabilities to the benefit of both parties.

“When you’re talking about a near-peer conflict, you need all of your coalition partners to operate with the same playbook so you can achieve spectrum dominance,” said the 68th EWS director. “One F-16 with a reprogrammed pod won’t achieve air dominance alone, but it may give you a pocket of air superiority for a moment’s time to achieve an objective that has strategic importance and impact.”

The Ukrainian F-16s

President Volodymyr Zelensky first announced that Ukraine has taken delivery of its initial batch of F-16 fighter jets on Aug. 4, 2024. A ceremony was held at a confidential site, with the aircraft positioned alongside him, and another pair flying overhead.

The number of aircraft delivered was not disclosed, although it’s being reported that they are ex-Dutch aircraft . In total, Ukraine is set to receive approximately up to 91 F-16s, in both single seater AM and twin seater BM variants.

The arrival of the F-16s, after months of anticipation, represents a significant milestone for Ukraine, although the exact number available and their impact on air defenses and battlefield effectiveness remain uncertain. For now, it appears that the F-16s will be employed only in an air defense role, although it is expected that they will also get an air-to-ground role later in the future.

Images released by the Ukrainian Air Force so far depict the fighters armed with AIM-120B AMRAAM and AIM-9L/M Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, in addition to the two 370 gallons external fuel tanks and the Terma PIDS+ (Pylon Integrated Dispensing System) pylons, which also include UV Missile Warning Sensors.

Zelensky highlighted the transition to Western combat aviation as a new phase for Ukraine’s air force, achieved through extensive diplomatic efforts. Previously relying on outdated Soviet-era aircraft, Ukraine’s air force has been outmatched by Russia’s superior fleet, enabling Russia to conduct extensive missile strikes and support its eastern frontlines with guided bombs.

The F-16s delivered to Ukraine are already compatible with many of the Western weapons that were integrated on the Ukrainian MiG-29s and Su-27 and will be able to employ these weapons more efficiently. Reports mention that Ukrainian F-16s might also get in future the possibility of employing the AGM-158 JASSM .

The versatile, multirole F-16 jets will augment and eventually replace Soviet-era fighters, which have been modified to use Western-donated weapons like the JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition), AGM-88 HARM (High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile), ADM-160 MALD (Miniature Air-Launched Decoy), and the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG ALCM (Air-Launched Cruise Missile), though these modifications have faced some difficulties.

• Ukrainian Air Force
• War in Ukraine

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